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What Are the Northern Lights? · Part vii
+ 2 added

Does the Sun sleep?

The Sun does not always burn at the same intensity. Roughly once every eleven years it draws a breath — swinging from calm to fury and back to calm.

Scientists have established that the Sun raises and lowers its activity over the years. This roughly 11-year cycle is called the solar cycle. At the start of the cycle the Sun emerges from its slumber, reaches its most active state between years 5 and 8, then grows quiet again — and swaps its north and south poles.

Solar cycle · 2008 — 2030
2014–2015
Cycle 24 peak
April 2020
Cycle 25 onset
2024–2026
Solar maximum
Does the Sun sleep?
Eleven years, minimum to maximum.
Eleven years, minimum to maximum.Sunspot number since 2008 (NOAA SWPC · SILSO): cycle 24 peaked around 2014, the minimum came at the end of 2019, cycle 25 peaked around 2024–25. Beyond the record the line is a model.
year
2026SSN 141
Solar maximum · model

The Sun's activity rises and falls on an ~11-year rhythm. Near maximum, sunspots and solar storms are frequent and the aurora reaches far south; near minimum, quiet nights can pass with nothing at all. Solid: the 13-month smoothed sunspot number; faint: monthly means; dashed: a model past the record.

Solar maximum.

The cycle's most active phase is called the solar maximum. The most striking auroras are most likely in this phase. Cycle 24 peaked in 2014–2015 and ended in early 2020; a sunspot in April 2020 was counted as the onset of cycle 25. Even in the quiet phase — as long as the Sun exists — auroras keep appearing.

4 NOVEMBER 2003 · CYCLE 23 MAXIMUM

In a year close to the solar maximum of cycle 23, a great flare on 4 November 2003 released an immense amount of electrical energy. Had it occurred on the face of the Sun turned toward Earth, it could have caused severe damage to sensitive electronics — a reminder that the solar maximum is not only a visual feast but also a window of risk.

+Added · October 2024·Stronger than forecastWhen this chapter was written in 2019, the official forecast was for a weak Cycle 25 — a modest peak in mid-2025 at a sunspot number around 115. It didn't play out that way: the cycle came early and strong, peaking in October 2024 at a sunspot number near 161 — the most active Sun in about 20 years. (NOAA revised its forecast upward in October 2023.) Even in late 2025 it was still producing roughly 31% more sunspots than the previous cycle.+Added · 2025·The best years aheadGood news: we passed solar maximum in 2024–2025, but the cycle's declining phase — the next few years — historically brings the most violent storms. The 2003 Halloween storms came on the descent; the 10–11 May 2024 Gannon storm (G5) struck near the peak. So the strongest years for the northern lights may well be ahead of us.
How to read+ Green · added× Pink · corrected
This page's history
  1. 2025+Declining phase · strongest years ahead
  2. October 2024+Cycle 25 peak · stronger than forecast
  3. December 2019○Original · book edition