Southern lights forecast
for Bruny Island / Cockle Creek
Bruny Island / Cockle Creek, Australia — about 50° geomagnetic latitude. Darkest southern Tasmania; Cockle Creek faces due south over dark water.
Southern lights in Bruny Island / Cockle Creek tonight · live
Can you see the aurora in Bruny Island / Cockle Creek?
Yes. From a dark site you need about Kp 4 for a faint glow low on the southern horizon, and roughly Kp 6 for bright aurora directly overhead. At 50° geomagnetic latitude this spot sits well outside the oval — it takes a major geomagnetic storm.
Over the last 12 months the planetary Kp peaked at the levels Bruny Island / Cockle Creek needs on the days shown — out of 365. Kp is a global index, so these are the odds the sky was active enough; you still need clear, dark skies here. In 94 years on record the strongest day hit Kp 9.
The greatest storms on record: The Halloween storms (Oct 2003) · The Gannon storm (May 2024) · 13 Nov 1960
The full Kp archive, 1932 → today →When to go
The season runs late March to late September, when the nights are long and dark. You also need clear skies and a low moon — even a strong Kp is useless under cloud. Check tonight's live call above, then plan a night around the dark window, cloud and moon.
Clearest dark months here (outlined): Jan, Feb, Sep. ERA5 reanalysis, 2015–2024 monthly mean. Climatology, not a forecast — a regional ~25 km grid; local microclimates are not captured. Darkness & moon calendar → Best month, all spots →
Nearby in Oceania
Thresholds are averages from a dark site. Real visibility also needs clear skies, darkness and a cooperative moon — read every number as a chance, not a guarantee. The map is schematic: the oval is drawn around the geomagnetic pole and tuned to this place, so its edge reaches the marker at the Kp this page gives; the marker is approximate.