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● Aurora by location

Southern Lights Forecast
for Bruny Island / Cockle Creek

Bruny Island / Cockle Creek, Australia — about -50° geomagnetic latitude. Darkest southern Tasmania; Cockle Creek faces due south over dark water.

Bruny Island / Cockle Creek
Drag Kp — watch the oval reach youKp 2.7 · not yet
-50° geomag.● outside the oval
● Right now · live
Kp 2.7Bruny Island / Cockle Creek — aurora is unlikely on the horizon tonight
0% aurora probability nowMaybe. it's borderline.
Full live forecast → all 70 spots
Kp for a glow
Kp 4
Kp overhead
Kp 6
Geomagnetic lat.
-50°
Best season
late March to late September

Can you see the aurora in Bruny Island / Cockle Creek?

Yes. From a dark site you need about Kp 4 for a faint glow low on the southern horizon, and roughly Kp 6 for bright aurora directly overhead. At -50° geomagnetic latitude this spot sits well outside the oval — it takes a major geomagnetic storm.

◇ How often, historically
129 / 365
days · Kp 4+ (a glow here)
25 / 365
days · Kp 6+ (overhead here)

Over the last 12 months the planetary Kp peaked at the levels Bruny Island / Cockle Creek needs on the days shown — out of 365. Kp is a global index, so these are the odds the sky was active enough; you still need clear, dark skies here. In 94 years on record the strongest day hit Kp 9.

The full Kp archive, 1932 → today →

When to go

The season runs late March to late September, when the nights are long and dark. You also need clear skies and a low moon — even a strong Kp is useless under cloud. Check tonight's live call above, then plan a night around the dark window, cloud and moon.

◐ Tonight: about 10.3 h of astronomical darkness (~18:55–05:10 local). The aurora is usually best near local midnight.

Nearby in Oceania

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Thresholds are averages from a dark site. Real visibility also needs clear skies, darkness and a cooperative moon — read every number as a chance, not a guarantee. The map is schematic: the auroral oval is drawn at a nominal 66° and the marker is approximate.